Looking towards 2027
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MAY be one of the simplest principles in economics, but in cattle and beef markets the equation becomes considerably more complicated. In this article, we will look at the market trends at play as we prepare for 2027 through this lens of supply and demand.
BEEF SUPPLY
Domestic Supply: Surging supply and shifting seasons Australian beef supply is surging at the moment, with cattle slaughter figures for the 2025-26 financial year the highest since the 1970s, all while maintaining a strong domestic herd size. If this high level of slaughter and strong herd size continue into 2027 the domestic supply of beef in Australia should remain robust.
Supply of beef in Australia will always depend heavily on the weather. In the short-term, favourable weather conditions often boost producer confidence and result in fewer animals being offered and more buyers being interested in them. If favourable conditions continue, however, increased retention and improved production capacity will eventually lead to greater cattle and beef supply. This short-term impact of weather can be seen in Figure 1 which shows the Online Young Cattle Indicator and the rainfall event experienced in Eastern Australia during May. With the mention of El Niño in the long-range forecasts, weather will remain a key variable to watch for beef supply in Australia.
Global Supply: Rising Brazilian rivalry, restricted US rebuild Brazil’s expanding beef production and export volumes are increasing competition in international markets, particularly in highly competitive segments like manufacturing beef. At the same time, growing Brazilian feedlot capacity means its competition with Australia is increasingly extending into highervalue grain-fed markets. Growing Brazilian competition has the potential to place downward pressure on Australian beef prices in markets serviced by both countries, reinforcing the importance of differentiation, consistency and supplying highervalue market specifications.
Another major player is the US, where a slow herd rebuild is limiting domestic beef production and keeping the country reliant on imports. This should continue to support demand for Australian beef through 2027.
